Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Excess mortality due to Chernobyl and Fukushima

What is the cost in human lives? Difficult to ascertain. For example, regarding Chernobyl, the estimate of excess deaths [cancer alone] range from 62 [United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation or UNSCEAR] to ~9,000 [WHO and IAEA] to 965,000 [The New York Academy of Sciences] with others estimating excess mortality from 30,000 - 250,000. Let us throw out the range extremes [arbitrary though this may be, not knowing the merits of the studies]. We have therefore from ~ 9,000 - 250,000 excess deaths [from cancer alone, not including deaths from birth defects, Chernobyl heart disease, immunological disorders, etc]. At the very minimum, we have approximately four times the deaths of the World Trade Center Disaster and at the maximum, we have more than two times the United States military deaths in World War I.

Probably, due to Fukushima's location, lack of fallout on Tokyo, relatively poor evacuation plan, reliable estimates of present and future [implied] contamination of the environment, the amount and nature of Fukushima reactor fuel, and failing to sarcophagize the plants, the excess mortality due to Fukushima [if things don't get worse and the truth of the matter is actually revealed] will probably fall in the upper range of Chernobyl estimates of excess mortality, if not exceed them.

As a caveat, assumptions, some arbitrary, were made and I did not compare estimated excess deaths due to more traditional and less obvious and less immediately noxious electricity generating systems. I have also purposely excluded controversial and unstudied environmental effects such as radiation induced massive storms. However, it is still apparent that Fukushima is far more deadly than the Bhopal disaster, and, at the very least, we should ask ourselves, is nuclear power worth it? 

From a Nichiren Lotus Sutra Buddhist perspective, realizing that one human life is worth more than all the treasures of the universe, the answer is, it is not worth it.

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